Results:

Although 2011 was my breakout season, winning the 2011 Best All-Around Rider, I still had not won a Pro/1/2 race.  I felt like my form was too even in 2011 and set out to find higher peaks in 2012 in hopes of winning a few races.  I was successful in this regard, winning 3 races (A stage race crit, a cyclocross TT, and a cyclocross race) in 2012.

2012 Dead Dog Criterium

Equipment:

The big addition to my collection this year was my first proper time trial bike.  I’d been racing on a converted road frame, and having a proper TT bike was a major revelation.  I improved my 40k PR by a minute at the State TT Championship and finished 5th, less than minute from the winner.

Blue Triad SP

The Team:

This season I’ve taken on extra duties with the team. I’ve been taken behind the curtain with team finances and sponsor relations. Its been a lot of work but I’ve been excited to have more control over my own destiny.  Part of the reason for less frequent posting on this blog has been that I’ve allocated more of my free time to team matters.  That being said, I’m very much looking forward to the 2013 season.

2012 Natural Grocers Elite Squads

Training Volume:

As always, my volume was lower than planned.  I’ve been reducing my training volume to meet my time constraints, and I usually miss my targets but 5-10%.  This year was no exception, as I trained about 400 of my planned 450.  You can see that my weekly hours and TSS varied week to week; This is evidence of my training to ‘peak’ with harder weeks followed by much easier weeks before key races.

2012 Annual Summary

Performance Management Chart:

Below is a chart with my 2012 PMC (top) and 2011 PMC (bottom). First I’ll point out that my data is much more complete for 2012 (2011 is missing some data in August). But next you’ll notice that my build up was more gradual and my peak form was longer. I think this is probably why I had trouble continuing through the length of cyclocross season late this year, as I had been very close to top form since July.

PMC 2012(top) vs 2011(bottom)

Peak Power:

2012 (Purple, below) saw very similar peak power number to 2011 (Gray, below), and I even set a few power records. Partly this is due to my crank power meter reading ever so slightly higher than my powertap, since the power is measured before losses due to the chain (about 3%). At the very least I was happy to see similar power numbers with fewer training hours, as it showed I was utilizing my time training properly.

All Time Peak (Gray) vs 2012 (Purple)

Power Profile:

This graph probably gives me the most insight into my abilities and where I need to focus my efforts for 2013. You can see clearly my three seasons of data below, with each data set (time interval) having three distinct peaks for each season. My sprint power has been decreasing, 5 minute power holding steady, and last season I saw my highest threshold number yet.

All Time Power Profile

Summary:

Overall I am happy with how this season went. I laid out my goals and felt like I did my best at the State TT, although I missed my goal of qualifying for the Nature Valley Grand Prix. I had good race results and won a few races (I’ve updated my Palmarés page above). I wasn’t targeting the BAR and still finished 12th. I lost steam towards the end of the season and have taken more time off and gained more weight than I would have liked to, but I am excited to choose some goals for 2013 and make a plan for another successful season in 2013.

The course was totally awesome, but also quite difficult.  There were perhaps two flat straights on the entire course, and the rest was constantly twisting with sections of great flow, off camber, loose dirt, dust, grass, bumps, sketchy descents, and a few stairs.

I usually do a little course recon via Twitter.  I expected to need intermediate tires, or even file treads, as the course it at a bike park and it has been very dry lately.  Luckily, I was informed of how loose the course was before I arrived and I brought my aggressive Specialized Terra tubulars which worked well to cut through the soft stuff to find traction.

I had fun warming up and ended up at the back of the start grid since I hadn’t pre-registered.  I moved up to about 10th from last as we hit the course, but I planned to have fun and wasn’t worried about having to pass a few guys.

At the second barrier section only a few minutes into the race I hopped back on and something was wrong with my bike.  I glanced at my drivetrain and everything seemed OK so I had to dismount and troubleshoot.  By the time I’d unhooked my brake caliper from under my rim, I was the last rider on the course.  I’d had this happen on a remount at the Boulder Cup, and I’m not sure when I’m catching the brake.  The pads aren’t adjusted perfectly, since I switch wheels a lot and unfortunately they aren’t all exactly the same diameter and I think my alloy tubulars are the largest, so the pads sit low on the braking surface of the low profile rims.

I passed the last placed rider and quickly found the tail end of the race.  I figured I’d start motoring past folks, but I was instead surprised to find that I couldn’t go much faster than the small group bringing up the rear of the race.

This was in pretty much all aspects.  I wasn’t interested in descending much faster, and I definitely couldn’t pedal much harder either.  I felt sloppy on and off the bike and before long my back started to hurt too.  I glanced at my computer and was only 20 minutes into the race.

It was only about 10 more minutes before I decided to pull the plug.  I was much further back than I expected, and was feeling much worse than I expected to feel.

But, the race still served its purpose.  It is easy to get used to being fast.  I’ve been racing well at the top level of local and regional races for a while now and it can start to feel like you intrinsically belong there.  I’ve often said that for the most part I don’t really believe in ‘genetic gifts’ and that hard work can take you a long way in cycling.  I was reminded that the opposite is also true and taking a month off on the tail end of fitness after nine months of racing will send your body into all-systems shutdown pretty quickly.  I also gained a bit of weight (I’m about 10-12 lbs over peak road-season weight), and this also can play a major role in race performance.

I’m not sure yet if I’ll pedal the cross bike in anger again this season or not.  I might be able to put things back together a little in the few weeks leading up to the State Championship.  At this point I’m planning on starting training for road season just after the start of the year, so my main priority is to stay fit beween now and then.

Tread / Rubber

The Typhoon tread is based off the Clement Grifo tread pattern which has been in use since the 1970s.  Either old habits die hard, or perhaps tread pattern nirvana was found many years ago… But either way the tread pattern performs as advertised: Rolling quickly on pavement with minimal buzz and grippy enough in most conditions.

When the tires were new, the grip was surprising.  I got the impression that the sharp edges of the half moons gave the tires most of their ability to hold a line under pressure.  At CrossVegas the tires were stuck to the grass like velcro in the corners.  I noticed in particular how ‘sharp’ the tires felt on my hands; if I was spinning the rear wheel and had to stop it with my hand the tread would feel very harsh across my palm.

However, the grip progressed from unbelievable to good after perhaps a half dozen races.  The tires lasted about two dozen races in total (keep in mind this includes pre-riding and occasionally riding out to a race).  By the time the sidewall gave out (more on this below), the tread was also no longer performing as well as I would have liked.  For most racers, expect the tread to last one season.

Casing / Sidewall

Yes, everything you’ve read is true.  The casing is without question incredibly supple.  Pumped up to 15 psi and compared to a typical vulcanized tubular, the difference is obvious: the Dugast feels like it is very soft and you can easily press your thumb to the rim, but on the other tire it feels firm and near a rideable pressure.  I don’t have experience with other high-end cold vulanized cotton tubulars (FMB, etc), but I assume they are similar in feel as they are similar in construction.

The supple casing translates into very predictable performance across a range of pressures, as the air pressure in the tire does most of the work in terms of stability.  When I say ‘predictable’, I don’t mean always good.  On firm ground in a fast corner, the supple casing is more prone to folding than other tires.  In fact, Dugast offers a stiffer casing for exactly this reason with its ‘flying doctor’ version of the tires.

I found the supple casing makes pressure selection even more important, as the tire is less forgiving once pressure drops too low.  Generally less pressure gives more traction, but more traction is not always needed with an intermediate tire such as the Typhoon.  There is also a tradeoff between the ability to absorb bumps (low pressure) and stability in the corners (high pressure).

Like I said, the Dugast offers predictable performance, so once you’ve dialed in your pressure for a particular course, you’ll know what to expect from your tires.  I’ve found that tires with stiffer casings are prone to suddenly folding or squirming if a corner is taken 1% harder.  The softer casing is more predictable and since it ‘feels’ softer at a given pressure, a higher pressure can be used for increased stability while the soft feel retains traction and smooths bumpy sections.  At 160 lbs I would use 26-27 psi as a starting point for most courses.

Durability / Sealing

I’ll admit that I have did not perfect my sidewall sealing technique on my first try.  Firstly, I didn’t seal the tires before riding them, and instead waited until before the first wet race.  I also (obviously) didn’t seal the tires before gluing.  There are different schools of thought here, but I found the cotton basetape to be very ‘thirsty’ and it was difficult to seal the 1-2mm of base tape running along the rim after gluing.

When I see the big time pro’s tires, I’ve noticed a few things.  Firstly, their race tires are always very fresh, with the ‘tire hair’ still prominent.  Secondly, they are very well sealed with an almost plasticy layer of aquaseal.  Eventually, my tires developed some black rot near the base tape and eventually the thin fibers of the cotton casing began to split.  The casing is incredibly thin (2 ply of unidirectional fibers, so both are necessary), so any imperfection will destroy the tire.

Rumor has it that some or all of Dugast’s tires will be factory sealed for 2013.  I’m not sure if this will sway me too much, as my tires were still able to last a season with a marginal sealing job, which is about what I expect out of the tread.

Summary

The Typhoon is a phenomenal intermediate tire.  I rarely felt like I needed less tread, but wanted more in the mud and would opt for a different tire when it was wet or soft.  The sidewalls are fickle, but if you plan to race enough in a season (12-20 races), expect to be replacing your tires at the end of the year anyway.  They are somewhat more expensive than some tires, but if you’re comparing high end tires, you’ll likely be paying about $100 each, so Dugast are still competitive at $120.  Overall verdict: I’m 90% sure I’ll be buying another pair for 2013.

I want to race two more cyclocross races, but only for ‘fun’.  It takes me a little time away to adjust my expectations from ‘trying to win’ to ‘fun’, so I’ll probably take a few more weeks off and then race and finish with the State Championships.  I’ve really enjoyed cross this year but I didn’t quite have the super-form that would have motivated me to race seriously through the end of the season.

I’ve also been busy with the logistics of road season, which has helped re-align my focus towards next year.  I’d prefer to have fallen off the cyclocross wagon a few weeks later, but I’m going to try to remain flexible and find some offseason exercise to stay fit until I really start training in about a month.

This is the time of year where I’ll be looking at solidifying my goals for next year so I can start building my training plan around them.  I’ll be crosstraining and for the first time, I’m going to the gym for some weight lifting.  I’ve been telling myself for years that I’m going to start but this year I am committed to adding weight lifting to my training.

Thanks for reading and stay tuned for some offseason updates and some final thoughts about cyclocross.

I was able to install chainrings using standard crank bolts by trying a few times until the friction was enough to tighten the bolt sufficiently without accessing the second allen key on the back of the bolt.  I may try chopping one of my allen keys in the future to see if I can manipulate it into place, since there might be just enough clearance.

Wear after 2 months of Cross

More of a concern though was wear.  I know it is silly but cranksets are the centerpiece of a groupo and cyclocross is very hard on the finish.  Mud and grit get rubbed on the crank arms by your feet as you wrestle the bike at strange angles.  This is made worse by low-tension pedals which make foot/ankle interference even more likely.  I may try a treatment to refresh the clear coat by the time road season comes around.  If I do, I’ll let you know how it goes.

More importantly, now that I’ve thrashed my crank for a few races, how useful is the data?

Race Power Data

Below I’ll provide data from seven races.  I’ve raced a couple more this season but I was having problems with my Garmin 500 not recording data properly (since resolved since performing a ‘full reset’ and turning off ‘smart recording’).

I think the most useful data from the above chart is the 30 minute average / Normalized Power and the CrossResults points (lower is better).  The 30 minute average accounts for sitting up the last lap and shorter races by focusing on the fastest 30 minutes of each race.

Overall there seems to be little correlation between power numbers and race performance.  While it is true that CrossVegas was my best race and had my best power numbers, it was also at 2500 feet of altitude, half that of the other races.  I think the best example races to compare are the USGP Day 2 and the Boulder Cup: Both races have similar power numbers but I did much better at the Boulder Cup by all metrics.

I think there are a few reasons the data doesn’t account for performance.  Most importantly, the running sections.  30 seconds off the bike per six minute lap is would reduce power by 8% (about a 25 watt reduction for the above data) compared to riding constantly for the entire lap.  Even small changes in the amount and difficulty of running sections will affect the data significantly.  Keep in mind that this reduction in NP also reduces TSS scores.

The next reason for variability in the data is technical ability/tire pressure, etc.  The faster a corner can be taken, the more speed is carried, and less power is required to accelerate.  When you’re riding well technically, less power is required to complete the course, and a better placing can be found with lower power output.

Summary

I haven’t found the power meter to be terribly useful for cyclocross racing.  Race day power data doesn’t seem to correlate well with a successful race.

However, that doesn’t mean the power meter is useless on my cyclocross bike.  I train more with intervals during cyclocross season and the power meter is very useful for training.  I also have found that I was generally under-estimating TSS scores for race day.  After accounting for riding out to the race, warming up, course preview, and riding home, I might burn 2000 kJ and accrue 175 TSS points.

I’ve had bad luck at previous editions of the Boulder Cup.  In 2010 I crashed in one of the first corners and broke my brake lever off.  I grabbed my townie from the pits but was quickly pulled out of the race.  I wore a costume for that race, but I didn’t want to be the guy off the back making a joke of the race.  I wanted to be the guy who could get a laugh as well as be a serious competitor.  I would have to wait until 2012 to get my revenge, as I watched the 2011 edition from the sidelines with my arm in a sling.

I’ll keep this race report short and let the photo gallery speak for itself.  My costume doesn’t reference a specific character (although cheers of “Silver Surfer”, “Silver Bullet”, “Silver Guy”, and “Tin Man” were heard on course).  The weather warmed up quite a bit and I was overheating badly during the race.  I still had a great time, chugged a beer on the runup, and still finished 28th place on the lead lap!

I’d also like to thank photographers Brian Patrick, Dejan Smaic, Annette Hayden, Yann Ropars, and Rob Jones for providing photo and video for this post!

I say hoping because I’d given up on training for the last two weeks following the USGP.  Seriously.  I only rode four out of the 12 days leading up to this race.  Two days were just riding at the Valmont Bike Park (venue for tomorrow’s Boulder Cup) for fun.  I had a feeling that I just didn’t want to ride anymore so I decided to listen to the feeling and clearly it was the right thing to do.

Firstly, a quick note about this venue: There are goat head thorns all over the place! Do not ride your bike anywhere except pavement, and the course.  A previous time I was out at the Boulder Reservoir I was stuck in the thumb by a thorn in my pocket!  The course is designed to avoid the gravelly areas where the dry, vine-like plants are most frequently found.  I was vigilant enough to come away unscathed for another year.

Credit: Donny Warbritton

I arrived to find the course mostly tacky and perfect for my brand new Specialized Terra Tubulars.  The Terra is an aggressive tire that is reported to be more versatile than some of the mud specific tires out there (like a Dugast Rhino).  I couldn’t agree more, since the tires were perfectly suited to the course which had a few greasy spots but was soft and tacky with the addition of sandy areas on the course.  I rode a higher pressure than I might normally since the previously wet course had been smoothed out (few bumps) and there weren’t many slick spots.

I drew a good number for the race and lined up 35th.  I made sure to choose the left side since the first two turns went to the right and the field always stacks up on the inside of the corners.  The first corner was especially wide and I scouted a line in advance that worked well.  The field was a much more manageable size (about 50) compared to the USGPs fields of 90+.  I was riding mid-field halfway through the first lap.

28 seconds of pedaling! (Blue section)

I knew I was on a good day when it seemed easy to keep moving up the field.  Part of the was the course design: The long straightaways allowed me to use my high neuromuscular fatigue resistance to pedal harder than the other guys on the couple sections of course.  There were 3-4 sections of course that required pedaling for 20-30 seconds, compared to the USGPs more compact venue that only had one long section along the home straight.

On my off days at the USGP I was riding with riders that I usually don’t see too much of at the big races, since they’re pretty far behind me.  Today I was riding with riders that I also don’t see much of, but they’re usually in front.  I was passing guys like Jake Wells and Ken Benesh without feeling like I was riding my eyeballs out.

I took a conservative approach to the course as far as obstacles were concerned.  I ran the exit from the beach (which to me is a no-brainer because the exit is very slow and it was a short run), and ended up running the sand pit a time or two.  The sand pit was touch because it was a slow speed entry on a physically demanding part of the course.  I also ran the logs, since I’m not much of a bunny hopper.  I was even heckled for being ‘the first guy’ (frontmost) to run them.  I didn’t even try during warmup and now I wish I’d at least taken a closer look.  Bunnyhopping has been on my summer skills to-do list for a while but I still haven’t gotten around to it.

At one point I was as far up the race as about 17th position, but I was overtaken by a strong group of five guys that I couldn’t hang with and settled in just outside 20th place.  I was feeling strong at the end and made a few passes to finish about 20th.  I rode a smart, clean race (not a single bobble with the exception of the sandpit) and was thrilled with my result.

I’m not certain, but it looks like if I finished 21st place, I’ll get $20, which will be my first prize money in a UCI race!  Tomorrow’s race is a C1 (versus C2 for this race), and 20th place would net me a decent $94.

I don’t get too many readers on weekends, but I’ll go ahead and mention that tomorrow’s Boulder Cup is a big race and an even bigger party!  If you’ve never been to watch a bike race, this is the one to go to.  I’ll be racing at 3:50 and warming up in the team tent off Valmont by the Dog Park entrance.  There is a beer garden, expo, and this year even has a Jumbotron!  If you can’t make it out to the race, it will be livestreamed by cyclingdirt.org.

Note: Although the Boulder Cup has been a C1 event in year’s past, I was informed that this year it is a C2, as there are no C1 events held on the same day as a World Cup.

For better or worse, amateur bike racing easily lends itself to delusions of grandeur.  You line up with a field of similarly matched competitors decked out in team gear.  There is an announcer screaming your name and keeping spectators appraised of the race situation.  There will be prize money, but probably not podium girls waiting for you at the finish.

It can be easy to get caught up in this at any level.  Win a few Cat 4 racers and your peers will know who you are.  We all know each other in the relatively small community of a few thousand regional bike racers, and winning a “Pro”/1/2 race may seem like the pinnacle of sport… But it really isn’t that big of a deal in the grand scheme of things.  I’m lucky enough to have a reasonable expectation of an opportunity to win these local races, but that is the draw of bike racing: most of the starters have a chance at winning.

However, the few big races I enter every year are different.  I have no hope of winning.  This is even more true in cyclocross, where races are more predictable.  There are racers who have slowly clawed their way up the results sheet when the big races come to town (Allen Krughoff) and been noticed on the national stage, but that isn’t really why I race them.

The Big Show

The big race is my opportunity to take my delusions of grandeur one step further.  Every racer dreams of what it must be like to live the life of a pro, and I get my little chance to experience it when the big race comes to town.  To experience the large crowds, professionally designed/marked courses, loud PA systems, and media attention at a big race is my opportunity to get a taste of what it is like to race at that level.  For me it is a highlight of my season, but to the travelling pros, it is just another stop on the calendar.

We also make our own goals when we line up at the back of the Elite field.  Finishing on the lead lap is an honorable goal and I’ve been successful on a few occasions, although I was well off the mark last weekend.

I’ll also mention that it is a major learning opportunity.  The next time you’re at a large race early in the day, you’ll see a handful of riders following the top riders as they warm up.  This is the best chance many riders will get to truly analyze the techniques of highly skilled international level pro racers in the home environment.  It can be hard to get an idea of tire selection and course conditions based on race photos alone, so simply seeing course conditions and the tires selected by top riders in person can be very helpful.

I’ll also make a quick mention of road racing, although the question was posed for Cyclocross. On the road there is always the chance for a lucky result.  Perhaps you’ll make the right move and get your photo or a mention in major cycling media.  There also is much higher risk and there are often serious crashes.  I’m a pretty tough racer and I like exciting, technical courses, but sometimes I can’t quite imagine the lifestyle of back-to-back-to-back National Calendar twilight criteriums with large, agressive fields, big prize lists, screaming fans, loud announcers, and the constant threat of bodily injury.

Day 1

The forecasters had a rough week here in Colorado, and they were wrong about Saturday for about the third day in a row.  10% chance of showers turned into a few hours of steady rain.  The course was thirsty, and it stopped raining a couple hours before start, so most of the course was simply tacky for the Men’s Elite race.  I stuck with mud tires for the few sections on the course that stayed slippery.

My mud clinchers seemed to work fine since traction was mostly plentiful, and there was nary a rock on the course so I was comfortable at a low (about 30 psi) pressure on my 31c Crosswolfs.  I drew a decent start position and was about mid-field in the first part of the race.

It wasn’t a good day for my legs and I started drifting backwards.  I felt like I was going as hard as I could, but guys that don’t usually get the better of me kept coming past.  I feel like I have a history of under-performing at the big cyclocross races, and I’m not exactly sure why. One of my theories is that the guys I can hang with on a regular weekend are focusing on the big races more than I am, and show up on peak form.  Another is that I may be over-rested: I had great legs on Wednesday, but after two more days off I didn’t have the punch I needed.

Either way, my result was pretty dismal: 67th/90.  I was pulled with four laps to go and only had 316NP for 38 minutes of racing.  I cleaned up my bike (including my normal race wheels which I’d previewed the course with), and mentally prepared for the next day’s race.

Day 2

I felt a little bit like the excitement was lacking overall for me at this race.  Usually I’m totally excited to be racing with the fastest guys in the country.  There is a lot to learn by having the opportunity to preview the course with them.  The level of production/course design, and media attention also add to the excitement.  But this weekend I felt like I wasn’t really that star struck and was simply going through the motions.

I noticed my rear dugast sidewall wasn’t very happy after the previous day’s wet conditions.  The tires really are only good for one season, but I’d broken my collarbone (on the second day of the Fort Collins USGP) and was still riding the same set.  There was a little rot but they’d been holding steady until the prior day’s moisture.  They’re on my lightest set of wheels and the tread was good for the second day’s super fast dry course.  I figured they’d hold for the race.

I was wrong.  After the first lap, we hit the pavement across the finish line and I could feel the tire, ‘whump, whump, whump’, rolling across the pavement irregularly.  I was able to ride to the pit before it exploded, but had to change the wheel as I don’t have a spare bike.  I only lost about 30 seconds, but on the second lap of the race it put me pretty far back.

The course was very fast, but still bumpy.  I tried previewing it with lower tire pressure (low 20s), but I felt like I didn’t have enough stability in the corners.  Higher pressure had me bumping all over the course.  I settled on 24/26 which seemed a good compromise.  The course also was constantly turning, with only a few full throttle sections.  Gone were last year’s long, straight climbs.  I was ‘floating’ (off the saddle / absorbing the bumps) over basically the entire course and pretty soon my back and arms gave out.

I could easily feel that my pedaling strength was limited by the muscles in my lower back.  My legs were better but I wasn’t going much faster than the previous day.  I was pulled at 2 laps to go in 61st place.  According to the lap time report, if I’d been consistent with my fastest two laps, I probably could have finished on the lead lap in 50th.  I would have been reasonably happy with that result, but I still think it is within my ability this season to be closer to the mid-30s.  My power numbers were actually in line with what I’ve been seeing this season with 321 NP for the 52 minutes of racing.

Another factor is that I think the fields were bigger and stronger than last year.  The field was stacked with plenty of travelling pros along with quite a few locally based pro mountain bike racers who can always have a respectable showing.

It is now two weeks until the big show comes back to town.  I’m looking forward to the opportunity to redeem myself.  Usually I’m proud to have my name appear on the results in international media, but not as far down the results sheet as it was this weekend.

I’ll be looking for some new tires as my rear Dugast had the latex tube bulging out through the sidewall.  I haven’t decided what I’m going to get but look for a review of my Dugast experience soon.

I’ve had some low back pain over the years, but my triceps felt like I’d done 1000 pushups which isn’t normal for me.  I’m going to attribute this to course conditions and a lack of upper body strength.  I’d done some upper body/core conditioning earlier in the season before I started racing, but I might want to consider continuing this further into the year.

Brief history:

Back in 2005, Le Equipe published its story “The Armstrong Lie”.  Their investigation centered around a scientific study to validate the new EPO test.  The study used individually coded (anonymous) B-samples from the 1999 Tour.  12 samples were positive.  The paper was able to match the codes for six of the sample to Lance Armstrong, using documents leaked from the UCI.

Obviously, this article was far from ‘proof’: The chain of custody was loose, there were no additional samples to test, and all the evidence was centered around leaked documents to match the sample codes.  But for the skeptics, it was the first evidence of rumors they’d heard for quite some time.

In 2006 the New York Times ran a story where Frankie Andreu admitted EPO use in the 1999 tour.  A second anonymous teammate (we now know to be Jonathan Vaughters), also came clean in this story.  The momentum only built with Floyd Landis’ 2010 leaked email to the CEO of USA Cycling detailing the team’s drug use, and Tyler Hamilton’s interview on 60 minutes in 2011.

A little about me:

Google News Badges

First, a window into my personality: I like to try to understand the position from people on both sides of issues.  I read most of my national/international news on Google News, which tracks the articles I read.  As a political liberal, for the most part I understand the liberal position on things, so I spend most of my time reading the opposing view.  I also love a good conspiracy theory and have spent time reading about 9/11 hoaxes and the Illuminati/New World Order. (Not that I believe in those any more than political conservatism )

So I’ve been following this story for quite some time but I haven’t always been a cynical skeptic.  I read Its not About the Bike when I was in high school.  I drooled over USPS carbon Trek bikes.  I was excited for Lance’s comeback, following him on twitter and watching videos of him out training with Allen Lim, even as I read articles about his links to doping.

The tides turn:

I think this will probably happen for everyone at some point, when it comes to Lance Armstrong.  How could anyone in 1999 not be captivated by his story?  But now, with all the evidence showing that he used drugs to win, how could anyone have the same view of things?

For me, it was the realization of the prevalence of EPO use.  I’ve referenced this graph a few times, which shows blood profiles of cyclists changing in response to the introduction of testing methods.  Keep in mind, there was no test for EPO in 1999.  With such an effective way to improve performance and a relatively supportive culture of use, it isn’t surprising that many used it.

How you feel about this is up to you.  Does prevalence of cheating make it acceptable on any level?  Does each rider’s feelings about the situation change your view on an individual basis? (Compare Lance’s complete denial with Landis’ open book confession with Danielson’s matter of fact ‘Necessary to compete’ with Zabriskie’s gut wrenching affidavit).  Obviously, not everyone used EPO simply because there was no test for it.  But I do think that individual rider’s personal feelings about doping are clear from their affidavits.

The truth/facts:

I think many opinons are fair, ranging from “He did a lot for cancer, everyone was doing it, and it was a long time ago” to “Anyone that doped and lied should be gone for good”, but what I really can’t stand are people that don’t understand the facts.  I’m going to do my part to put a few things straight:

“Its a kangaroo court!  This is America! Innocent until proven guilty in a court of law!”

All doping cases are handled the same way, through USADA, USAC, and the UCI.  In America, doping isn’t really against the law, so it must be done outside the courts.  There is a system of court like arbitration that is designed to be as fair as possible to resolve doping cases (of which there are many).  Many athletes have been found guilty of perjury for lying under oath (Marion Jones, Barry Bonds), which I believe is why so many riders gave their stories for this investigation.

“Never tested positive!”

Neither have any of the other riders (with the exception of Landis) who gave affidavits in this investigation stating they have used EPO, testosterone, cortisone, and other detectible drugs. Obviously not testing positive is not equivalent to not doping.

“They hang Lance and everyone else is off the hook!”

Travis Tygart (head of USADA), said “Lance Armstrong was given the same opportunity to come forward and be part of the solution.”  He potentially could have testified like everyone else and received a reduced ban for cooperating.

“The Federal Investigation was closed!”

The FDA investigation was focused on determining if any federal laws were broken.   Doping itself isn’t a federal crime.  The federal investigation was focused on the USPS contract, drug trafficking, and was also subject to different standards of evidence and statutes of limitations than the anti-doping investigation.

What the cynics say now:

I’m still keeping tabs on the cynics and skeptics.  Even today with a 365/24/7 whereabouts system, riders still cannot be tested between 10pm and 6am.  This is enough time for a small dose (micro-dose) of EPO to clear the system by morning.  Perhaps the Bio-passport system of monitoring blood values over time is helping, but there are additional methods of manipulating blood profiles.  Riders can still microdose EPO, mask new blood cells with re-infusion of stored blood, dilute abnormally high red blood cells with saline, drink copious water to dilute urine samples, among other techniques.  HGH is also only detectible for as little as 8 hours.

However, I do believe that things have changed for the better.  The culture in the sport appears greatly changed against doping.  This was also said in 1999 after Festina, and in the mid-2000′s after the development of the EPO test, when doping was still clearly prevalent, but the cultural tide seem to be continuously turning against doping.  Also, the methods available today result in much smaller gains than years ago.

Various reports put gains from EPO use at about 10%, easily enough to turn a Domestic pro into a World Class competitor.  But the cynics say that 500mL of infused blood, a micro-dose of EPO to increase reticulocytes, and 500mL of saline to mask increased Hgb/Hct is undetectable by current methods and would result in a few percent performance improvement, still enough to effect the outcome of a race.

Read for yourself:

USADA Investigation Affidavits – Click Appendices and Supporting Materials
(Here is an armchair quarterback’s list of the redacted names from The Clinic forum at Cyclingnews)

The Science of Sport – Academic discussion of athletic performance and doping.

Cycling Fans Anonymous on Twitter – Hardcore, biased cynicism

more glorious than hookers and blow – This blog deserves an entire paragraph: This is the ultimate cynic / conspiracy theorist site.  I’d assume the blog’s author, captaintbag, writes nearly unintelligibly (no punctuation or capitalization, phonetic spelling) to obscure their identity.  Look beyond the profane and childish writing style, and you’ll see detailed analysis of publicly available data on blood profiles and doping techniques.